Monggs think tank’s economic outlook for 2019: real years can withstand the flow of years
Message from New Year’s Day at Mongers | Real years can withstand the years.—— Economic Outlook for 2019 The original years of the original Mongers think tank can withstand the years.2018 is still winding: all kinds of impacts, all kinds of passions, all kinds of ups and downs, all kinds of fluctuations, all kinds of possibilities and frustrations, all kinds of shoals and torrents, all kinds of impulses and rest.We have experienced the most tumultuous Sino-U.S. Trade frictions in history, the toughest house price reductions and financial supervision in history, and also experienced corporate credit crises like Changsheng Bio.But Majestic China still created the first three quarters.With an economic strength of 5%, the Chinese economy is still standing at the bridgehead of the world economy.On the first day of the new year, the Mongers think tank, with its self-developed “Mongers Economic Index Index and Inflection Point System”, is looking forward to 2019 sailing through quantitative forecasting, bringing a unique New Year’s Day dedication. The Mongers Economic Index Index and Inflection Point System The Mongers think tank believes that judging the “good or bad” of non-economic data that is economically unchanged is as simple as considering the trending effect of various economic data on economic growth and improvement of people’s livelihood.How to predict 2019, we try to use the Mongers economic growth index to create a novel way of interpreting predictions and perspectives.The first step of the gradual completion of the index is to divide the macro economy into several sectors. For each sector, by selecting 1-3 indicators with different sizes, the sector index is generated to indicate the development and health of the sector;The index synthesizes the comprehensive economic index index; finally, based on the performance index, from economic growth (GDP growth per capita) and improvement of people’s livelihood (dominated by per capita income, residents’ per capita consumption of education, culture and entertainment, residents’ per capita health care expenditure, residents’ minimum security coverage, unemploymentRates and other factors make up the people’s livelihood improvement index) to find the inflection point of each sector and the overall economy. The former is the inflection point of growth, and the other is the inflection point of people’s livelihood, so as to judge the contribution of economic development trends to changes in per capita and people’s livelihood.Contributions that tend to be larger are expected to be better, while contributions that are smaller are expected to be worse.According to the meaning of the highest indicator, our expected outlook for 2019 can be summarized as follows: 1 Policy environment: relatively active fiscal policy and tight and moderate monetary policy According to the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2018, 2019 is still the sameIt is necessary to maintain a sound fiscal policy, and put forward the need to increase efficiency and implement larger scale tax and fee reductions to benefit the people, thereby increasing corporate profits and residents’ personal income.In 2019, it is expected that tax and fee reductions will gradually exceed the overall level in 2018, fiscal expenditures will expand, and the deficit rate may continue to increase, breaking the international warning line of 3%.Obviously, while proactive fiscal policies and tax cuts can promote the economy, attention needs to be paid to government debt.The results of Monggs research show that the scale of local government debt has exceeded the inflection point, and further expansion of local government debt will hinder the healthy growth of the economy. Maintain a sound monetary policy: It is estimated that the monetary policy will remain stable in 2019, improve the monetary policy mechanism, increase the proportion of direct financing, solve the problem of difficult financing for private enterprises and small and micro enterprises, and promote the “wide currency””Wide Credit” Conversion.In order to keep the money market running steadily, market interest rates may fall further.From the starting point, this round of M2 declines has been going on for more than a year, and will gradually begin to change to the price scale, thereby limiting the increasing range in 2019.It is expected to remain moderate in 2019 and CPI will continue to grow2.3%, 2% beyond international standards is not far away. 2 Consumption: Consumption grade, quantity decline and quality increase trend remains unchanged. In 2018, the sales scale of social retail products showed a downward trend, but the consumer product confidence index has improved, showing the characteristics of China’s consumer rating, quantity decline and quality increase.Taking the liquor industry as an example, both the price and sales volume in the high-end market have increased, while the sales volume in the low-end and mid-end markets has declined, driving the growth rate of the liquor market as a whole, but the overall quality has improved.It is expected that the trend will remain the same in 2019, but it should be noted that the reduction of individual taxes may stimulate the consumption amount. It is expected that the trend of gradual decrease in social retail sales in 2019 will be partially prevented.The consumption index of the Mengs Think Tank and consumer experience-related indicators is a reflection of consumer market trends. The average for the third quarter of 2018 was 0.44, the value is expected to reach zero in the first quarter of 2019.Above 5 reflects the relatively optimistic trend of the consumer market.The inflection point of consumption growth and the inflection point of people’s livelihood are zero.56 and 0.6, the index values are less than the inflection point value, which means that the positive development of the consumer market in the first quarter of 2019 is conducive to economic growth and people’s livelihood development.The figure below shows the trend of the consumption index, the per capita GDP growth index and the comprehensive index of the people’s livelihood. The latest two periods are forecast values and are indicated by dashed lines (the same below): 3 Fixed asset investment: Fiscal stimulus infrastructure accelerates or promotes investment recoveryThe growth rate hit a new low for many years, with infrastructure investment as the primary factor.Investment in 2018 showed four characteristics: First, infrastructure investment growth “stall”. In the first 10 months, infrastructure investment grew by only 3 per year.7%; the second is the steady rise in manufacturing investment and private investment; the third is the acceleration of real estate investment for the third consecutive year; the fourth is the obvious differentiation of investment in different regions.With steady investment policies in 2019, investment growth may pick up.With the more active fiscal policy in 2019, infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, and gradually fixed asset investment continues to a continuous trend.The Monges Think Tank Investment Prospects Index earned zero in the third quarter of 2018.045, which is expected to reach 0 in the first quarter of 2019.Above 09, the level of the first quarter of 2018 will be restored.The inflection point of investment growth is zero.5, the index values are less than the inflection point value, which means that changes in investment in the first quarter of 2019 are conducive to economic growth.At the same time, the investment expectation index and the people’s livelihood comprehensive index maintain a positive relationship, which means that changes in investment in the first quarter of 2019 will also help improve people’s livelihood.The following figure is the investment expectation index, the per capita GDP growth index and the overall livelihood index trend chart: 4 Foreign trade: The international environment 南京夜生活网 or the impact of foreign trade momentum can replace the growth rate of foreign trade import and export in 2018 and the above level (the first three quarters of data).With the superposition of domestic and foreign factors in 2019, the growth momentum of foreign trade will weaken.The main factors restraining the growth of foreign trade are: first, multiple uncertain factors affecting the momentum of global economic growth; second, protectionism rises, and trade barriers increase; third, China’s foreign trade orders have decreased; fourth, Sino-US trade frictions have not yet been properly resolved.It is expected that exports will increase by about 6% in 2019, and imports will increase by about 10%, both of which are an improvement over 2018.The Mongers think tank uses the total amount of foreign trade imports and exports to generate a foreign trade index, which changed 0 in the first quarter of 2018.59, the increase is expected to be zero in the first quarter of 2019.57. The nominal foreign trade index is less than the growth inflection point, which means that the substitution of foreign trade is expected to cause some drag on economic growth in 2019.At the same time, research shows that the relationship between the foreign trade index index and the livelihood comprehensive index is not clear.The following figure shows the foreign trade indicator index, the per capita GDP growth index, and the general livelihood index trend chart: 5 Job market: There are more new employment populations and job candidates seeking employment or continue to co-exist. In 2018, the job market remained relatively stable and increased.The urban employment population is 12 million, and the growth rate of new employment is the highest in recent years.But it is just that there is a mismatch between the supply and demand ratio in the labor market, and the labor market has been in a state of obvious supply and demand replacement in recent years.The employment market is expected to continue with the above characteristics in 2019.The Mongers think tank used the new employment growth rate and the employment supply-demand ratio to generate an employment index, which was 0 in the first quarter of 2018.247, the increase is expected to be zero in the first quarter of 2019.More than 3, a slight improvement from before 2018, but still at the lowest level in recent years.Although the employment outlook index has strong growth characteristics, and its relationship with economic growth and the comprehensive index of people’s livelihood is not obvious, the employment trend is still not optimistic.The following figure is the employment index index, the per capita GDP growth index and the comprehensive index of the people’s livelihood: 6 industry: the decline in the growth rate trend or continued to recover with the core indicators in 2018, the growth rate of industrial added value declined, but power generation, freight volume, steelCore industrial indicators such as output have recovered to a certain extent, showing some characteristics of the differentiation of industrial indicators.With the reduction of taxes and fees in 2019, the optimization and improvement of corporate survival and profits, and the reasonable stimulus on the consumer side, it is expected that the decline in the growth rate of industrial added value in 2019 will improve and slow down, but it will continue to decline.The core industrial indicators are expected to keep warming.The Mongers think tank uses core indicators such as power generation, freight volume, and steel output to generate an industrial core index, which was 0 in the first quarter of 2018.298, expected to reach 0 in the first quarter of 2019.49, rising each year.The core industrial index index is less than the growth inflection point. Its excess is good for economic growth, and at the same time it maintains a positive relationship with the comprehensive index of people’s livelihood. Therefore, its excess is also good for people’s livelihood.However, due to the increase in industrial added value, the contribution of the industrial sector to economic growth did not exceed 2018.The following figure shows the industrial core index index, the per capita GDP growth index and the overall livelihood index trend chart: 7 Agriculture: Continue to maintain stability In 2018, the value of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery production maintained a steady growth trend.The growth trend of the agricultural sector in the last three years has basically remained stable.It is expected that this growth trend in 2019 will remain the same as in 2018, with an increase of about 3%, and its contribution to economic growth will remain unchanged.But we need to pay attention to the impact of the international environment on agricultural sub-sectors and enterprises that rely heavily on foreign trade.In general, the relationship between the agricultural expectation index and per capita GDP growth and the overall livelihood index is not obvious, indicating that the impact of agricultural trends on overall economic growth tends to be small.The figure below shows the trend of the agricultural index, the per capita GDP growth index, and the overall livelihood index: 8 Real estate market: changes in investment growth rates and the restoration or coexistence of housing prices in some areas According to the central spirit, three major judgments on real estate policies in 2019 are formed.First, the “controlling house prices” achieved remarkable results in 2018, and the “stabilizing house prices” in 2019 is the keynote.Second, the local government has temporary budgetary autonomy, which will balance the pressure of “steady growth, ensuring fiscal and house price growth”.Third, the policies concerning land, leasing and security will be further improved.The growth rate of real estate investment in 2018 was earlier than 2017 and showed a trend of recovery, reflecting the confidence and prosperity of housing enterprises.However, it is expected that the investment growth rate in 2019 will increase slightly earlier than in 2018, and the expansion of budget expenditures and the strengthening of reorganization autonomy due to the balance of local governments. Land prices in some cities are expected to be higher than in 2018, and the overall stability of housing prices is slightlydecline.The Mongers think tank uses the growth rate of real estate investment and the steady state of house prices as indicators and the real estate real index.The index earned zero in the third quarter of 2018.62, is expected to be 0 in the first quarter of 2019.57, indicating that the state of the real estate market may shift.The inflection point for real estate market growth is zero.55. Therefore, the index value is greater than the inflection point value, and the decline in the index value has a new effect on economic growth.This is mainly because the real-time development of the real estate market has been sufficient. The decline of the index does not cause a drag on the overall economy, but may be beneficial to economic growth.In addition, the real estate index index and the people’s livelihood comprehensive index show a positive relationship, so the decline of this index is not good for people’s livelihood, so in general it will remain relatively stable.The figure below shows the real estate index index, per capita GDP growth index and the overall livelihood index trend chart: 9 Financial markets: improved liquidity, cautiously optimistic in 2019, the bond market will still maintain a stable and good market performance this year, mainly due to downward economic pressureThe expectation of increased and abundant liquidity is positive for the bond market environment.In addition, policies that are conducive to the development of the bond market are also expected to be introduced in 2019.But at the same time, the spread between China and China has narrowed, and credit risk can still withstand some interference caused by the debt market.Looking ahead to 2019, there is a high probability that A shares will show a trend of flat front and high back.Market sentiment in 2019 is expected to recover from 2018.Due to the improvement of liquidity, the improvement of the status of private enterprises, more local governments, and the active participation of financial institutions will also benefit the development of the stock market.However, due to the impact of deflation and the external environment, the prospect market is less attractive than before.Overall, the outlook for financial markets in 2019 is cautiously optimistic.The Mongers think tank uses the key indicators of the bond market, stock market and futures market to synthesize financial market index indexes. The index in the third quarter of 2018 was 0.42, predicting that the first quarter of 2019 will be 0.44, shows the improvement trend of financial markets.The index is less than the growth inflection point value of 0.53, indicating that the improvement of financial markets is beneficial to economic growth.At the same time, the financial market index and the people’s livelihood comprehensive index show a positive relationship. The increase of its value is also beneficial to the people’s livelihood, and the overall situation should be optimistic.The following figure shows the financial market index index, the per capita GDP growth index and the overall livelihood index trend: 10 Innovation: Innovation momentum or continued optimization. In 2018, China’s innovation index ranked 17th in the world, an increase of 5 places from 2017, reflecting the Chinese economyVitality and motivation for innovation in many attractions such as the Internet and artificial intelligence.It is expected that the index will be further improved in 2019 compared to 2018, and according to historical rules, the international ranking will also increase by 3-5. 11Comprehensive economic indicators: The overall stability is slightly lower, and the pursuit of quality improvement 2019 will be a year when economic development is becoming more rational. At the same time, due to the impact of the external environment, the economic growth rate in 2019 may be slightly lower than in 2018.The Monges think tank uses the composite economic index index of each sector index, which is 0 in the third quarter of 2018.45. In the first quarter of 2019, the forecast value of the index has converged to 0.43 or so.The average economic indicator index value is less than the growth inflection point value of 0 on average.52, indicating that the decline in its value may be accompanied by a decline in GDP per capita in the first quarter of 2019.At the same time, the composite index and the comprehensive index of the people’s livelihood show a positive relationship. It can be seen that the decline in the economic index is not conducive to people’s livelihood.The above shows that improving the quality of the economy is good for the better.The Chinese economy is still facing a transition period in 2019, and gradually shifts from the pursuit of “quantity” to the improvement of “quality”.From this period, the small decline in economic growth is not worth it.The following figure is the comprehensive economic indicator index, the per capita GDP growth index, and the people’s livelihood comprehensive index trend chart: 12 reminds that in general, the economic development trend in 2019 is returning to inertia.Specific to various economic actors, we make the following recommendations, specific references. For investors, with the gradual advancement of policies, policy formulation will gradually develop, financial markets and fixed asset investment are expected to pick up, and investors should remain confident in the size of the Chinese economy.In addition, due to the imbalance between the real economy and the virtual economy, under the trend of falsification and deduction, you should choose to invest in the entity; for enterprises, although tax reduction and fee reduction and liquidity improvement will help the enterprise to some extent, it is still recommended to maintain a certainCash flow to deal with uncertainty and risk; for residents, current consumer behavior is rational.With the improvement of consumer rights protection and the improvement of market information symmetry, the status of consumption classification is expected to continue.In the context of tax and fee reductions in 2019, household consumption must continue to be rational and avoid potential risks caused by excessive household debt problems; for financial institutions, they should go with the flow and increase small business credit and consumer credit.Improve service capabilities, stabilize credit scale, and prevent liquidity risks; for governments, they should be firm in their goals, maintain a determined focus, and be in control of policy-making mechanisms to prevent debt risks. Finally, I wish all readers a happy New Year and a safe arrival in 2019!