Suning Tesco (002024): The performance is basically in line with expectations and continued to promote the smart retail layout

Suning Tesco (002024): The performance is basically in line with expectations and continued to promote the smart retail layout
The company’s net profit attributable to mothers will decrease by 15 per year in 2019.94% -17.44% of the companies issued a 2019 performance forecast: it is expected to realize a net profit of 110.03 ppm to 112.30,000 yuan, corresponding to a reduction of 15 per year.94% -17.44%, long-term performance basically meets our previous forecast of 11.5 billion. In 2019, the company realized non-recurring profit 159.55-161.55 ppm The company achieved non-recurring profit 159 in 2019.55-161.US $ 5.5 billion, mainly due to: 1) The company completed the transfer of Suning’s equity to Suning Smart Life Holdings Co., Ltd., a joint-stock company, and achieved a profit of approximately 3.6 billion; 2) Suning Financial Services completed the capital increase and issued shares, and the transaction was profitable.About USD 10.4 billion; 3) Suning Shenzhen Venture Capital-Yunxiang Warehouse Logistics Facility Phase II Private Equity Investment Fund completed the acquisition of 5 logistics project companies and achieved a profit of about 600 million; 4) LAOX completed the targeted issuance of shares and strategic investorsConsolidated, the transaction brought about 600 million; 5) Reported that the combined company disposed of some transactional financial assets held by it and other non-recurring profit and loss items such as changes in the fair value of transactional financial assets had a combined impact of approximately 19.55 ppm-21.5.5 billion. Forced the promotion of smart retail layout under external pressure, and steadily promoted Carrefour’s integration. In 2014, the company was subject to the downward trend of overall consumer growth and the fierce competition. The external pressure was overcome, and the improvement in revenue growth in the first three quarters narrowed.However, the company strengthened the promotion of smart retail layout, improved the construction of all-scenario retail, and accelerated the layout of various types of channels in the low-end market.Through online shopping, push customers, Su Xiaotuan, etc. to strengthen social, social, live broadcast operations, online active 西安耍耍网 members have grown rapidly.With regard to the integration of acquisition business, Carrefour’s China business has achieved initial results. Carrefour China turned a profit in the fourth quarter. Carrefour’s enhancement of the company’s fast-selling business line will enhance the company’s competitiveness in the long run. Revise down 19-year profit forecast and maintain “overweight” rating. According to the company’s performance forecast guidance range, we cut the company’s 19-year EPS forecast to 1.19 yuan (previously was 1.)24 yuan), maintaining the EPS forecast for 20-21 years 0.02/0.03 yuan, the company’s promotion of smart retail business layout is consistent, maintaining the “overweight” level. Risk reminder: the prosperity of real estate in first-tier cities has declined, and the growth rate of consumer demand has fallen short of expectations

It was exposed that this wave of market is the most fun to play this fund

It was exposed that this wave of market is the most fun to play this fund

Today’s GEM index trembled, and the Air Force continued to replace high technology stocks.

A closer look at the trading data after the market found that the most fierce fight is actually this way of funds.

  Institutional hi-tech is more mad than hot money. The long-time leaderboard released after the exchange shows that institutional seats are deeply involved in the game of some technology stocks.

A number of institutional seats shared by buyers and sellers of multiple technology stocks have appeared, and the turnover has mostly exceeded 100 million yuan.

  For example, the leader of semiconductor equipment North Huachuang encountered a daily limit today, and the after-hours list shows that there are 4 institutional seats appearing to buy into a total of 3.

4ppm; another agency seat appeared to sell at a price of 5012.

660,000 yuan.

  North China Huachuang’s current leaderboard PCB concept Dongshan Precision also hit the limit today. After-hours leaderboard shows that there are 3 institutional seats appearing to buy and reorganize, buying a total of 1.

8.1 billion; the other three institutions appeared in the early stage of the sale, a total of 2 sold.

8.2 billion.

  Dongshan Precision’s Dragon and Tiger list today includes Tianya Communications (three-day list), Zhonghuan shares, Germany’s nanometer (three-day list) and other technology stocks disclosed today also have institutional seats in the dragon and tiger list.

  Since this month, the activity of the Long Tiger Rankings has significantly increased. Regardless of the number of listings or the amount of listings, the institutional seats have far exceeded some of the first-line hot money.

  Dongcai Choice 重庆耍耍网 data shows that since this month, the Dragon Tiger Ranking has a total of 1043 seats on the list, which has exceeded 811 times in January; the total turnover on the list is 429.

20ppm, this number is eight times the old hot money China Galaxy Securities Shaoxing Sales Department on the list at the same time!

  The seats on the Dragon Tiger List have recently been listed. The specific flow of the rankings, and the recent operations of institutional seats are basically all around technology stocks.

Since the beginning of this month, there have been 17 individual stocks listed on the list with a total transaction value of more than 500 million yuan, most of which are technology products.

  Technology stocks have risen to a high level. Organizations have repeatedly diverged. In this round of bottoming out, technology stocks have played a pivotal role.

From February 4th to 25th, the three major technology industries, including Shenwan Computer, Communication, and Electronics, all increased by more than 30%.

However, through the continuous rise of technology stocks to high levels, the operation of Longhubang institutions’ seats has gradually split.

  Data show that since this month, there have been 17 single-share institutional seats with turnover exceeding 500 million yuan.

The Bulls Group’s institutional seat on the new-shares list has a turnover of 15.

US $ 4.1 billion topped the list, with China Satcom’s agency ranking 13 on the list.

56 trillion seats were second place, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry, Inspur Information, and North Huachuang’s institutional seats on the list since this month have also exceeded 1 billion in turnover.

  In terms of industry distribution, computer, electronics and other technology industry stocks have become the focus of recent institutional seat participation.

In addition, although Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt are non-ferrous stocks, they are related to the concept of hot new energy vehicles in the early stage.

  The operation of 17 individual stocks on the list since the beginning of this month has totaled more than 500 million US dollars.

Among the above 17 stocks, the institutional seats are only in the Bull Group, Shenzhen Konka A, and the three stocks listed on the Dragon and Tiger list show a unilateral buying trend, while other stocks show a long-short game or even a unilateral selling trend.

  For example, the wave information of the domestic software sector has continuously increased by 40% since this month. Of all the leaderboards during the period, a total of 6 institutional seats have appeared to buy conversions, and a total of 5 buys.

9 billion yuan; the other 6 institutions appeared in the initial stage of the sale, a total of 5 sold.

5.8 billion yuan.

  On the Dragon and Tiger list this month, including Hanrui Cobalt, Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical, and Huahai Pharmaceutical, the average amount of institutional seats sold was significantly larger than the amount purchased.

  In addition to the withdrawal of technology stocks from Northwest funds, in addition to institutional seats, Northbound funds are also the focus of attention on the list.

Although there has been a net injection of northbound funds since this month, for some stocks penetrated by the short and medium-term gains of the Dragon Tiger List, northbound funds have the possibility of withdrawing from the country at an ascent.

  Of the 17 stocks listed on the top of this month’s institutional rankings, 12 stocks have both the Shanghai Stock Connect / Shenzhen Stock Connect, and 8 of them have the Shanghai Stock Connect / Shenzhen Stock Connect.Funds show net transparency and are mostly concentrated in high-end technology stocks.

  Northbound funds are now withdrawing from the high-profile budget. Today, in the North China Huachuang Leaderboard, there is a net sale of 4,270 in the Shenzhen Stock Connect channel.

300,000 yuan.

In the Dongshan Precision Dragon List today, there was a net sale of 3115 on the Shenzhen Stock Connect channel.

580,000 yuan.Prior to this, Shenzhen Konka A suffered a net sale of 5462 on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on February 11.

390,000, Inspur Information suffered a net sale of Shenzhen Stock Exchange on February 12.

2.3 billion.

  The record of Northbound holdings announced by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange also confirms this.

From February 3rd to 25th, the number of Northbound funds held by leading companies in technology fields such as BOE A, Hikvision, TCL Technology, and Luxion Precision declined, among which Hikvision’s Northbound fundsThe decrease was 9 in the month.


Sleeping long ≠ Sleeping well Sleeping becomes stupid

Sleeping long ≠ Sleeping well Sleeping becomes “stupid”
Lying on the bed tossing around and counting hundreds of sheep, I still can’t sleep . Many people have had nightmares about insomnia.Data show that about 10% -49% of people worldwide suffer from different degrees of insomnia, and in first-tier cities in China, the average total sleep length is less than 7 hours, and sleep problems have become a global issue.However, people are realizing that sleep quality is more important than total sleep.Recently, Liu Chang, a researcher at the Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Lesley Claire Griffith, a professor at Brandeis University in the United States, have used the model organism of Drosophila to find a neural circuit in the brain that regulates sleep qualityTo further analyze the neural mechanism that regulates sleep, it provides new therapeutic intervention targets and potential treatment strategies for coping with sleep problems.Relevant research results have been published recently in the journal Cells, a journal of Modern Biology.Is the fragmentation of sleep the “true murder”?Sleep structure is an important factor in determining sleep quality, and it is also the focus of this study.According to Liu Chang, under the normal sleeping structure, deep sleep, no ups and downs, no dreams, and wake up will have a good mental state.For those who need to take care of newborns, patients or obstructed airways, frequent waking up at night can cause huge physical and mental burdens, and may be accompanied by forgetfulness, weight gain, and hair loss.”Studies have shown that under conditions of high sleep quality, even if the time is relatively short, it will not affect the overall cognitive function of the brain.In contrast, sleep fragmentation can severely affect physiological functions.Liu Chang said.It is understood that long-term low-quality sleep can cause fatigue, learning and cognitive impairment, and is also an important factor inducing Alzheimer’s disease, depression, cardiovascular disease and other conditions.In exploring the mysteries of sleep quality, the research team focused on an important class of neurotransmitters, serotonin.Serotonin, also known as serotonin, is involved in regulating mood, appetite, cognition, pain, etc. Its biosynthetic related products are widely used in clinical treatment of depression.”But a large proportion of depression patients have worse sleep quality after taking serotonin drugs.Liu Chang said.What’s behind this?”Donut” brain area interrupted sleep?In order to further explore the brain mechanisms that regulate sleep structure and find out the relationship between serotonin and sleep quality, the research team conducted a series of experiments on Drosophila using thermogenetics and optogenetics to find a neural circuit that regulates sleep qualityAnd found an important target for interrupting sleep.In the experiment, the research team first expressed special genes in serotonin neurons in the brain of Drosophila, and then stimulated these neurons by “light” or “heat”. Excited neurons will release molecular signals after stimulation. TheseExcited serotonin neurons cause fragmented sleep.The research team also found that in the ellipsoid, a brain region that looks like a donut in the brain of Drosophila, a specific type of receptor receives these signals, and stimulating these receptor neurons also causes Drosophila to have sleep fragments.A phenomenon.”Experimental data shows that compared to the control group, the number of times that a particular neural circuit is activated to wake up during sleep during the day has increased by 15-20 times, and the number of wakes at night has increased by an average of 10-15 times.Liu Chang said.It is worth mentioning that the “donut” brain area where this type of receptor that receives signals and interrupts sleep has been thought to be responsible for regulating movement and perception, similar to the “navigator” in the brain of Drosophila.Liu Chang told reporters that the relationship between the “donut” brain area and sleep homeostasis has only been noticed by the academic community in recent years. The results of this study revealed, for the first time, the regulatory mechanism of this brain area on sleep quality.Can fragmented sleep still be saved?If you do n’t sleep well at night, you will often feel less productive and unresponsive the next day. This phenomenon has also been verified by previous experimental data.This time, the research team further studied the relationship between sleep quality and learning and memory based on the study of sleep fragmentation.Liu Chang said that in order to determine whether “fragmented sleep after activation of serotonin neurons” could lead to cognitive deficits, the team used the classic aversive olfactory conditioning experimentation paradigm-one option is that the fruit fly smells an odor while, Received electric shock punishment; another option is to smell another odor, there is no electric shock punishment.Repeatedly train the fruit fly, and finally let the fruit fly choose between two odors to analyze the learning ability of the fruit fly.The results showed that compared with the control group, the fruit flies undergoing sleep fragmentation reduced learning ability by 1/3, and then the drug recovery or genetic repair of sleep quality, the learning ability returned to the control group level.So how to improve fragmented sleep?According to Liu Chang, the discovery of specific receptors that interrupt sleep has also provided important targets for treating such sleep problems.In the experiment, the research team tested the fruit fly after genetically knocking out the receptor, or used pharmacological methods to block the function of the receptor. The number of awakenings of the fruit fly was significantly reduced, and the sleep quality was improved.”Although the neural regulation mechanism of sleep quality is found in the brain of Drosophila, experiments have confirmed that the relationship between specific receptors and sleep quality discovered in this study 成都桑拿网 also exists in mammals.”Chang Liu said that in the next step, the research team will continue to focus on molecules downstream of the target that are involved in regulating sleep quality.Guo Aike, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a neuroscience and biophysicist, said that this study links the way sleep and cognitive systems work through the serotonin system and provides an understanding of the mechanism by which serotonin regulates sleep and cognition.More ideal model.In addition, the study revealed specific receptor targets and provided new drug design targets for patients with sleep disorders and cognitive impairment in the clinic, which will help drug development and clinical application.China Youth Daily · China Youth Daily reporter Qiu Chenhui Source: China Youth Daily

Optimistic about the three major industries, private placement in the future still has room for space

Optimistic about the three major industries, private placement in the future still has room for space
Optimistic about three major industries!Private placement will still need to increase the future space for optimistic about the future market, and sometimes there will be many private placements high positions to wait.So, private placements have increased some industries?What sectors haven’t looked at?  Recently, the China Resources Trust Sunshine Private Equity Long Index (CREFI) monthly report for August has been released.The report shows that the three industries with the highest average allocation ratios in the index η fund stock assets are the food and beverage, pharmaceutical, biotechnology and technology industries.From the perspective of stock positions, through the development of the market, there is still room to increase positions in the future.  Indeed, junior institutions have become more optimistic about the market in the future and believe that the market is expected to turn around.On the whole, the core assets with strong performance certainty and the recent brilliant technology sector have attracted more attention.  1 Focus on the three major industries From the overall situation of the index, the recent performance of the CREFI index is dazzling.Data show that the CREFI index rose by 1 in August.1%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 0 during the same period.93%.Extending the time axis to nearly a year, the CREFI index increased by 10.56%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 13.95%.  Judging from the position situation, the private equity increase trend is obvious.As of the end of August, the average equity position of the CREFI index constituent funds was 73.1%, an increase of 3 from last month.11%.In the meantime, the proportion of funds holding more than 50% of stock positions was 82.86%, up 4 from the end of last month.35%.In addition, the proportion of constituent funds above 60% has increased.  From the change of average positions in the first eight months of this year, at the end of March this year, the constituent funds reached a high of 73 during the year.85%, then fell back to an intra-year low of 62 at the end of May.57%.Since then, the market has picked up, and the trend of adding positions started in June and continued to the end of August.”Historically, through the development of the market, we need to increase the space.”China Resources Trust said.  So, private equity funds have increased some industries?The report shows that from the perspective of the stock assets of the CREFI index in the late 1980s, the three industries with the highest average allocation ratio among the 24 Wonder secondary industries are: “Food, Beverage and Tobacco”, “Pharmaceutical, Biotechnology and LifeScience “,” Technical Hardware and Equipment “.Among them, affected by the science and technology board since June, the “technical hardware and equipment” has increased its holdings and is close to historical highs.  2 Technology stocks are 杭州桑拿网 still favored In August, under the leadership of technology stocks led by semiconductors, the market emerged from a wave of growth.  From the research situation of the past month, technology stocks have also received more attention.Wind data show that in the past month, private equity surveyed a total of 222 companies.Among the top ten stocks surveyed for private equity, technology stocks accounted for seven seats, including Zhaoyi Innovation, Huichuan Technology, and Huayu Software.Among them, Zhaoyi Innovation was researched by 111 private placements.  So, is it still appropriate to enter the layout of technology stocks?Private placement ranking survey shows that 68.72% of private equity believe that the current round of technology stocks is not a short-term “one-day tour” market. Under certain favorable policies, the performance of technology stocks will show explosive growth in the future. Leading technology stocks can cross the bull-bear cycle.In the current process, when the current market adjusts, investors can still enter the bargaining layout.  At the same time, some institutions hold different opinions.There are 31.28% of private equity believes that the current technology-related stocks have increased too much, and some stocks have already overdrawn their future performance. Investors who have not previously held positions need to be cautious, and it is not appropriate to increase positions quickly.  3 Equal value and growth. Regarding the market outlook, the merger institutions are relatively optimistic.  ”Overall, our view of the market lies between relatively optimistic and very optimistic.Juming Investment said that this judgment is based on four reasons: first, the long-term downlink asset shortage with no risk rate of return, which has led to a systematic allocation cycle of residents’ disposable income; and second, the stock level is still in a historical position and the market as a whole.The overall security is high; the third is an orderly policy portfolio system; the fourth is that too many “bad things” have occurred in the past two years, such as counterfeiting, trade wars, and economic growth, which have been fully reflected in the stock market.  ”Given that the A-share market continues to fluctuate and strengthen recently, this reflects the current macro factors, the external environment and other aspects of the impact on the domestic stock market has been differentiated, A-share investors’ response to the relevant bearish has also appeared” desensitization. “The A-share market style switching has begun to materialize. In the context of the market’s expected turnaround, A-shares will likely usher in a general rise in individual stocks and an overall equilibrium in the style of individual stocks.”Huili Assets believes that the market is expected to turn around.  So, where are the future investment opportunities?Yu Yi Assets believes that with the intervention of the government’s easing policies, the cost-effectiveness of equity assets is still prominent among large-scale assets.The context and main line of this round of quotes all revolve around high prosperity and sensitivity to risk appetite.In the future, the short-to-medium-term future will continue to focus on the direction of securities firms and technology, and large consumption with deterministic performance and new energy. Undervalued finance is also a key direction worthy of attention.  ”We continue to focus on core assets with strong performance certainties, while also harvesting technology companies with relatively low estimates and good performance.Focus on non-bank financial, real estate, medical and biological, media, electronics, computer, food and beverage industries.Said Huili Assets.  Juming Investment believes that consumption is mainly due to the increase in the core core asset value and subsequent increase in excess income. Therefore, it chose to underestimate the high-quality companies at the bottom and the technology sector sought after by the market.

Shiji Information (002153): Information consumption leader cloud value is taking off soon

Shiji Information (002153): Information consumption leader cloud value is taking off soon
Strategic pattern: Accurate and steady development of mergers and acquisitions has created a leader in the field of large consumption. The company has rapidly developed into a leading company in domestic hotel, catering and retail information system management systems through mergers and acquisitions.As of 2018, the company has 6 hotel customers, 20 catering customers and more than 400,000 retail customers, and has more than 60% market share in China’s star hotel information management system and domestic high-end or above market.At present, the company restructures the fourth round of transformation, implements the “internationalization + platform” strategy, develops new profit models, and wants to 成都桑拿网 break the traditional business profit space pattern. Technology trend: Cloud PMS is expected to continue to expand the profitability of the hotel business. In the field of hotels and catering, the company has continued to transform to cloud and internationalization, and has now achieved initial results, achieving an ARR of more than $ 100 million.Considering that Oracle started late, and the company focuses on its own strengths and avoids insufficient advantages, the company is expected to account for about 20% of the global cloud PMS. By then, cloud revenue will be considerable. Value-added: The retail line has a turnover of more than 5 trillion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 15%. Under the background of new retail, expansion, the company, traditional retail and payment performance are expected to accelerate 四川耍耍网 growth, the CAGR is expected to be 15% and 3% in the next 3 years; the company estimates that the total offline sales in 2019 will exceed 500 billion, taking into accountThe number of users and revenue growth of Fuji, Changyi, and Xunxun. We expect that the growth rate of offline offline stacking is expected to exceed expectations and may reach an annual growth rate of 15%. Company profit forecast and investment rating.The company is a leading company in domestic hotel, catering and retail information system management systems.We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.53/0.65/0.78 yuan, corresponding to 62/51/43 times the PE, giving a “strong recommendation” rating. Risk reminder: the uncertainty faced by the international business environment, the uncertainty of the company’s product development progress and the speed of cloud-based landing, and the uncertainty of the competition pattern of related companies.

Reduce the cost of bank funds interbank certificates of deposit market is now artifact

Reduce the cost of bank funds interbank certificates of deposit market is now “artifact”
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!  Reduce bank capital costs!The interbank deposit certificate market is now an “artifact” Huang Zihao special epidemic deposit certificate!  Yesterday, the market interest rate pricing self-regulatory mechanism issued a notice on the “Interim Special Deposit Certificates for the Prevention and Control of Epidemics,” which issued requirements for interbank deposit issuers including issuer qualifications, issuance processes, and supervision and management.Special funds for special interbank certificates of deposit shall be used for the purpose of supporting fund requirements such as loan placement of relevant enterprises for epidemic prevention and control and shall be managed independently.  This is another “artifact” to encourage banks to support epidemic prevention and control after special refinancing.It is understood that at present, China Construction Bank has successfully issued special certificates of deposit, Bank of Communications, and China Merchants Bank have issued inter-bank deposit certificate issuance announcements, including a large number of banks within the Minsheng Bank are also conducting inquiries.  Some people said that the issuance of special interbank certificates of deposit for epidemic prevention can quickly lower the bank’s internal fund pricing FTP and reduce the cost of bank funds.  ”Special deposit certificates make more and more use of corporate credit related to the epidemic situation, lower interest rates and lower general loan interest rates can reduce financing costs for epidemic prevention enterprises and accelerate expansion of production.”” Liao Zhiming (Jin Qilin analyst), chief analyst of the banking industry at Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, said.  The increase in the issue interest rate for special interbank certificates of deposits has been reduced. According to the information disclosed by China Currency Network, the reference income of the three-month special certificates of deposit that has been published so far has increased.2%, which is about 10 basis points lower than the ordinary certificates of deposit of the same type of bank. The reference income of the special one-year certificate of deposit issued by China Merchants Bank is duplicated2.5%, which is about 15 basis points lower than the bank’s one-year ordinary certificates of deposit during the same period.  The three banks issued this time announced a total of US $ 5 billion in issued scale, and the funds raised were targeted for loan issuance.The original source said that ordinary interbank certificates of deposit raised funds, unified access to the bank treasury, can be used for credit issuance.The large banks of the Construction Bank type have some large-scale alternative institutions among the subscribers to their deposit certificates, and their subscriptions are currently active.  According to the Shanghai Securities Journal, there are still some bank merger special deposit certificates inquiry.Insiders of Minsheng Bank said that the bank plans to issue special inter-bank deposit certificates for epidemic prevention and control with a term of 1 year and a price of 2.55%, each branch is inquiring about the local city rural commercial banks and the Associated Press.  Yesterday, the “Interim 都市夜网 Certificate of Issuance of Special Interbank Depository Certificates for Epidemic Prevention and Control” also mentioned that the issuance of special deposit certificates for financial institutions shall meet the 2020 interbank deposit certificate issuance plan, including the balance of interbank certificates of deposit for special epidemic prevention certificates not exceeding the institution ‘s annual issuance quota.conditions of.  To further reduce the actual cost of bank funds, gradually expand the special refinancing of US $ 300 billion, support financial institutions to provide preferential interest rate loans to key disease prevention and control enterprises, reduce financing costs for disease prevention and control enterprises, and release the first on February 10Approve special reloans.  According to the content of Liu Guoqiang ‘s speech on February 9th, the special refinancing period is one year, and the interest rate limit on bank deposits is three.15%, encourage banks to issue loans at interest rates.The government will give a discount of half of the actual loan interest rate to ensure that the actual financing cost of the enterprise is less than one.6%.  Banking institutions also provide differentiated preferential financial credit support for the epidemic.At the State Council ‘s launch conference on February 15, Liang Tao, vice chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that banks should be encouraged to increase support in areas affected by the epidemic by adjusting regional financing policies, internal capital transfer pricing, and performance appraisal methods.Strength.For companies affected by the epidemic, if they have difficulty repaying their loans at maturity, once the loan is renewed or renewed, the relevant enterprises will be resumed to resume work and resume production to overcome the impact of the epidemic through appropriate reductions in loan interest rates, increased credit loans, and long-term and medium-term loans.  Some people have said that the advent of the special epidemic prevention and saving list will quickly and effectively reduce the bank’s capital cost, and directly support the outbreak of corporate loans for epidemic prevention and control, further reducing corporate financing costs.  A person from the financial market department of a stock bank disclosed that due to the varying degrees of resumption of existing institutions and the limited source of funds for a large number of stock banks, the cost of funds and the pricing of internal funds are difficult to decline rapidly.The cost of special interbank certificates of deposits, thereby helping the stock bank to reduce internal funds pricing FTP.  ”Because of a data model for internal transfer pricing, a moderate adjustment of the weight of interbank funds can achieve the effect of reducing the overall capital cost of the institution.The source said that by reducing the cost of capital and appropriately increasing the spread of targeted policy support assets, the profit and loss balance of the targeted issuance loan business can be guaranteed.

Monggs think tank’s economic outlook for 2019: real years can withstand the flow of years

Monggs think tank’s economic outlook for 2019: real years can withstand the flow of years
Message from New Year’s Day at Mongers | Real years can withstand the years.—— Economic Outlook for 2019 The original years of the original Mongers think tank can withstand the years.2018 is still winding: all kinds of impacts, all kinds of passions, all kinds of ups and downs, all kinds of fluctuations, all kinds of possibilities and frustrations, all kinds of shoals and torrents, all kinds of impulses and rest.We have experienced the most tumultuous Sino-U.S. Trade frictions in history, the toughest house price reductions and financial supervision in history, and also experienced corporate credit crises like Changsheng Bio.But Majestic China still created the first three quarters.With an economic strength of 5%, the Chinese economy is still standing at the bridgehead of the world economy.On the first day of the new year, the Mongers think tank, with its self-developed “Mongers Economic Index Index and Inflection Point System”, is looking forward to 2019 sailing through quantitative forecasting, bringing a unique New Year’s Day dedication.  The Mongers Economic Index Index and Inflection Point System The Mongers think tank believes that judging the “good or bad” of non-economic data that is economically unchanged is as simple as considering the trending effect of various economic data on economic growth and improvement of people’s livelihood.How to predict 2019, we try to use the Mongers economic growth index to create a novel way of interpreting predictions and perspectives.The first step of the gradual completion of the index is to divide the macro economy into several sectors. For each sector, by selecting 1-3 indicators with different sizes, the sector index is generated to indicate the development and health of the sector;The index synthesizes the comprehensive economic index index; finally, based on the performance index, from economic growth (GDP growth per capita) and improvement of people’s livelihood (dominated by per capita income, residents’ per capita consumption of education, culture and entertainment, residents’ per capita health care expenditure, residents’ minimum security coverage, unemploymentRates and other factors make up the people’s livelihood improvement index) to find the inflection point of each sector and the overall economy. The former is the inflection point of growth, and the other is the inflection point of people’s livelihood, so as to judge the contribution of economic development trends to changes in per capita and people’s livelihood.Contributions that tend to be larger are expected to be better, while contributions that are smaller are expected to be worse.According to the meaning of the highest indicator, our expected outlook for 2019 can be summarized as follows: 1 Policy environment: relatively active fiscal policy and tight and moderate monetary policy According to the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2018, 2019 is still the sameIt is necessary to maintain a sound fiscal policy, and put forward the need to increase efficiency and implement larger scale tax and fee reductions to benefit the people, thereby increasing corporate profits and residents’ personal income.In 2019, it is expected that tax and fee reductions will gradually exceed the overall level in 2018, fiscal expenditures will expand, and the deficit rate may continue to increase, breaking the international warning line of 3%.Obviously, while proactive fiscal policies and tax cuts can promote the economy, attention needs to be paid to government debt.The results of Monggs research show that the scale of local government debt has exceeded the inflection point, and further expansion of local government debt will hinder the healthy growth of the economy.  Maintain a sound monetary policy: It is estimated that the monetary policy will remain stable in 2019, improve the monetary policy mechanism, increase the proportion of direct financing, solve the problem of difficult financing for private enterprises and small and micro enterprises, and promote the “wide currency””Wide Credit” Conversion.In order to keep the money market running steadily, market interest rates may fall further.From the starting point, this round of M2 declines has been going on for more than a year, and will gradually begin to change to the price scale, thereby limiting the increasing range in 2019.It is expected to remain moderate in 2019 and CPI will continue to grow2.3%, 2% beyond international standards is not far away.  2 Consumption: Consumption grade, quantity decline and quality increase trend remains unchanged. In 2018, the sales scale of social retail products showed a downward trend, but the consumer product confidence index has improved, showing the characteristics of China’s consumer rating, quantity decline and quality increase.Taking the liquor industry as an example, both the price and sales volume in the high-end market have increased, while the sales volume in the low-end and mid-end markets has declined, driving the growth rate of the liquor market as a whole, but the overall quality has improved.It is expected that the trend will remain the same in 2019, but it should be noted that the reduction of individual taxes may stimulate the consumption amount. It is expected that the trend of gradual decrease in social retail sales in 2019 will be partially prevented.The consumption index of the Mengs Think Tank and consumer experience-related indicators is a reflection of consumer market trends. The average for the third quarter of 2018 was 0.44, the value is expected to reach zero in the first quarter of 2019.Above 5 reflects the relatively optimistic trend of the consumer market.The inflection point of consumption growth and the inflection point of people’s livelihood are zero.56 and 0.6, the index values are less than the inflection point value, which means that the positive development of the consumer market in the first quarter of 2019 is conducive to economic growth and people’s livelihood development.The figure below shows the trend of the consumption index, the per capita GDP growth index and the comprehensive index of the people’s livelihood. The latest two periods are forecast values and are indicated by dashed lines (the same below): 3 Fixed asset investment: Fiscal stimulus infrastructure accelerates or promotes investment recoveryThe growth rate hit a new low for many years, with infrastructure investment as the primary factor.Investment in 2018 showed four characteristics: First, infrastructure investment growth “stall”. In the first 10 months, infrastructure investment grew by only 3 per year.7%; the second is the steady rise in manufacturing investment and private investment; the third is the acceleration of real estate investment for the third consecutive year; the fourth is the obvious differentiation of investment in different regions.With steady investment policies in 2019, investment growth may pick up.With the more active fiscal policy in 2019, infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, and gradually fixed asset investment continues to a continuous trend.The Monges Think Tank Investment Prospects Index earned zero in the third quarter of 2018.045, which is expected to reach 0 in the first quarter of 2019.Above 09, the level of the first quarter of 2018 will be restored.The inflection point of investment growth is zero.5, the index values are less than the inflection point value, which means that changes in investment in the first quarter of 2019 are conducive to economic growth.At the same time, the investment expectation index and the people’s livelihood comprehensive index maintain a positive relationship, which means that changes in investment in the first quarter of 2019 will also help improve people’s livelihood.The following figure is the investment expectation index, the per capita GDP growth index and the overall livelihood index trend chart: 4 Foreign trade: The international environment 南京夜生活网 or the impact of foreign trade momentum can replace the growth rate of foreign trade import and export in 2018 and the above level (the first three quarters of data).With the superposition of domestic and foreign factors in 2019, the growth momentum of foreign trade will weaken.The main factors restraining the growth of foreign trade are: first, multiple uncertain factors affecting the momentum of global economic growth; second, protectionism rises, and trade barriers increase; third, China’s foreign trade orders have decreased; fourth, Sino-US trade frictions have not yet been properly resolved.It is expected that exports will increase by about 6% in 2019, and imports will increase by about 10%, both of which are an improvement over 2018.The Mongers think tank uses the total amount of foreign trade imports and exports to generate a foreign trade index, which changed 0 in the first quarter of 2018.59, the increase is expected to be zero in the first quarter of 2019.57. The nominal foreign trade index is less than the growth inflection point, which means that the substitution of foreign trade is expected to cause some drag on economic growth in 2019.At the same time, research shows that the relationship between the foreign trade index index and the livelihood comprehensive index is not clear.The following figure shows the foreign trade indicator index, the per capita GDP growth index, and the general livelihood index trend chart: 5 Job market: There are more new employment populations and job candidates seeking employment or continue to co-exist. In 2018, the job market remained relatively stable and increased.The urban employment population is 12 million, and the growth rate of new employment is the highest in recent years.But it is just that there is a mismatch between the supply and demand ratio in the labor market, and the labor market has been in a state of obvious supply and demand replacement in recent years.The employment market is expected to continue with the above characteristics in 2019.The Mongers think tank used the new employment growth rate and the employment supply-demand ratio to generate an employment index, which was 0 in the first quarter of 2018.247, the increase is expected to be zero in the first quarter of 2019.More than 3, a slight improvement from before 2018, but still at the lowest level in recent years.Although the employment outlook index has strong growth characteristics, and its relationship with economic growth and the comprehensive index of people’s livelihood is not obvious, the employment trend is still not optimistic.The following figure is the employment index index, the per capita GDP growth index and the comprehensive index of the people’s livelihood: 6 industry: the decline in the growth rate trend or continued to recover with the core indicators in 2018, the growth rate of industrial added value declined, but power generation, freight volume, steelCore industrial indicators such as output have recovered to a certain extent, showing some characteristics of the differentiation of industrial indicators.With the reduction of taxes and fees in 2019, the optimization and improvement of corporate survival and profits, and the reasonable stimulus on the consumer side, it is expected that the decline in the growth rate of industrial added value in 2019 will improve and slow down, but it will continue to decline.The core industrial indicators are expected to keep warming.The Mongers think tank uses core indicators such as power generation, freight volume, and steel output to generate an industrial core index, which was 0 in the first quarter of 2018.298, expected to reach 0 in the first quarter of 2019.49, rising each year.The core industrial index index is less than the growth inflection point. Its excess is good for economic growth, and at the same time it maintains a positive relationship with the comprehensive index of people’s livelihood. Therefore, its excess is also good for people’s livelihood.However, due to the increase in industrial added value, the contribution of the industrial sector to economic growth did not exceed 2018.The following figure shows the industrial core index index, the per capita GDP growth index and the overall livelihood index trend chart: 7 Agriculture: Continue to maintain stability In 2018, the value of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery production maintained a steady growth trend.The growth trend of the agricultural sector in the last three years has basically remained stable.It is expected that this growth trend in 2019 will remain the same as in 2018, with an increase of about 3%, and its contribution to economic growth will remain unchanged.But we need to pay attention to the impact of the international environment on agricultural sub-sectors and enterprises that rely heavily on foreign trade.In general, the relationship between the agricultural expectation index and per capita GDP growth and the overall livelihood index is not obvious, indicating that the impact of agricultural trends on overall economic growth tends to be small.The figure below shows the trend of the agricultural index, the per capita GDP growth index, and the overall livelihood index: 8 Real estate market: changes in investment growth rates and the restoration or coexistence of housing prices in some areas According to the central spirit, three major judgments on real estate policies in 2019 are formed.First, the “controlling house prices” achieved remarkable results in 2018, and the “stabilizing house prices” in 2019 is the keynote.Second, the local government has temporary budgetary autonomy, which will balance the pressure of “steady growth, ensuring fiscal and house price growth”.Third, the policies concerning land, leasing and security will be further improved.The growth rate of real estate investment in 2018 was earlier than 2017 and showed a trend of recovery, reflecting the confidence and prosperity of housing enterprises.However, it is expected that the investment growth rate in 2019 will increase slightly earlier than in 2018, and the expansion of budget expenditures and the strengthening of reorganization autonomy due to the balance of local governments. Land prices in some cities are expected to be higher than in 2018, and the overall stability of housing prices is slightlydecline.The Mongers think tank uses the growth rate of real estate investment and the steady state of house prices as indicators and the real estate real index.The index earned zero in the third quarter of 2018.62, is expected to be 0 in the first quarter of 2019.57, indicating that the state of the real estate market may shift.The inflection point for real estate market growth is zero.55. Therefore, the index value is greater than the inflection point value, and the decline in the index value has a new effect on economic growth.This is mainly because the real-time development of the real estate market has been sufficient. The decline of the index does not cause a drag on the overall economy, but may be beneficial to economic growth.In addition, the real estate index index and the people’s livelihood comprehensive index show a positive relationship, so the decline of this index is not good for people’s livelihood, so in general it will remain relatively stable.The figure below shows the real estate index index, per capita GDP growth index and the overall livelihood index trend chart: 9 Financial markets: improved liquidity, cautiously optimistic in 2019, the bond market will still maintain a stable and good market performance this year, mainly due to downward economic pressureThe expectation of increased and abundant liquidity is positive for the bond market environment.In addition, policies that are conducive to the development of the bond market are also expected to be introduced in 2019.But at the same time, the spread between China and China has narrowed, and credit risk can still withstand some interference caused by the debt market.Looking ahead to 2019, there is a high probability that A shares will show a trend of flat front and high back.Market sentiment in 2019 is expected to recover from 2018.Due to the improvement of liquidity, the improvement of the status of private enterprises, more local governments, and the active participation of financial institutions will also benefit the development of the stock market.However, due to the impact of deflation and the external environment, the prospect market is less attractive than before.Overall, the outlook for financial markets in 2019 is cautiously optimistic.The Mongers think tank uses the key indicators of the bond market, stock market and futures market to synthesize financial market index indexes. The index in the third quarter of 2018 was 0.42, predicting that the first quarter of 2019 will be 0.44, shows the improvement trend of financial markets.The index is less than the growth inflection point value of 0.53, indicating that the improvement of financial markets is beneficial to economic growth.At the same time, the financial market index and the people’s livelihood comprehensive index show a positive relationship. The increase of its value is also beneficial to the people’s livelihood, and the overall situation should be optimistic.The following figure shows the financial market index index, the per capita GDP growth index and the overall livelihood index trend: 10 Innovation: Innovation momentum or continued optimization. In 2018, China’s innovation index ranked 17th in the world, an increase of 5 places from 2017, reflecting the Chinese economyVitality and motivation for innovation in many attractions such as the Internet and artificial intelligence.It is expected that the index will be further improved in 2019 compared to 2018, and according to historical rules, the international ranking will also increase by 3-5.  11Comprehensive economic indicators: The overall stability is slightly lower, and the pursuit of quality improvement 2019 will be a year when economic development is becoming more rational. At the same time, due to the impact of the external environment, the economic growth rate in 2019 may be slightly lower than in 2018.The Monges think tank uses the composite economic index index of each sector index, which is 0 in the third quarter of 2018.45. In the first quarter of 2019, the forecast value of the index has converged to 0.43 or so.The average economic indicator index value is less than the growth inflection point value of 0 on average.52, indicating that the decline in its value may be accompanied by a decline in GDP per capita in the first quarter of 2019.At the same time, the composite index and the comprehensive index of the people’s livelihood show a positive relationship. It can be seen that the decline in the economic index is not conducive to people’s livelihood.The above shows that improving the quality of the economy is good for the better.The Chinese economy is still facing a transition period in 2019, and gradually shifts from the pursuit of “quantity” to the improvement of “quality”.From this period, the small decline in economic growth is not worth it.The following figure is the comprehensive economic indicator index, the per capita GDP growth index, and the people’s livelihood comprehensive index trend chart: 12 reminds that in general, the economic development trend in 2019 is returning to inertia.Specific to various economic actors, we make the following recommendations, specific references.  For investors, with the gradual advancement of policies, policy formulation will gradually develop, financial markets and fixed asset investment are expected to pick up, and investors should remain confident in the size of the Chinese economy.In addition, due to the imbalance between the real economy and the virtual economy, under the trend of falsification and deduction, you should choose to invest in the entity; for enterprises, although tax reduction and fee reduction and liquidity improvement will help the enterprise to some extent, it is still recommended to maintain a certainCash flow to deal with uncertainty and risk; for residents, current consumer behavior is rational.With the improvement of consumer rights protection and the improvement of market information symmetry, the status of consumption classification is expected to continue.In the context of tax and fee reductions in 2019, household consumption must continue to be rational and avoid potential risks caused by excessive household debt problems; for financial institutions, they should go with the flow and increase small business credit and consumer credit.Improve service capabilities, stabilize credit scale, and prevent liquidity risks; for governments, they should be firm in their goals, maintain a determined focus, and be in control of policy-making mechanisms to prevent debt risks.  Finally, I wish all readers a happy New Year and a safe arrival in 2019!

Keming Noodle Industry (002661) Interim Review: Short-term factors disturb performance, two-wheel drive performance, elastic resistance

Keming Noodle Industry (002661) Interim Review: Short-term factors disturb performance, two-wheel drive performance, elastic resistance

I. Event Overview On August 5, 2019, Keming Noodle Industry released its 2019 Interim Report.

At the core of the report, the company achieved revenue of 15.

1.5 billion, +17 a year.

55%, realized net profit attributable to mother 1.

40,000 yuan, at least -9.


Second, the analysis and judgment of heavy low-end noodles led to revenue growth, reduced government subsidies + increased interest expenses dragged down net profit 19H1 The company achieved revenue 15

1.5 billion, +17 a year.

55%, equivalent to Q2 to achieve revenue 7.

29 trillion, ten years +17.

58%, the growth rate was basically flat compared to Q1; 19H1 achieved net profit attributable to mothers1.

40,000 yuan, at least -9.

45%, equivalent to Q2 to achieve net profit attributable to mother 0.

42 trillion, ten years +4.

76%, Q1 (-17.


Revenue maintained a high growth rate mainly due to the report that the combined company’s low-end suspension surface product layout to promote channel sinking and seize 杭州桑拿网 the wholesale / agricultural trade channel; net profit attributable to mothers reached -9.

45%, mainly due to the reduction in government subsidies received by the company and increase in financial cost indexing expenses: of which the government subsidies in this period decreased by about 0.

16 trillion a year -63.

36%; The increase in interest expenses on financial expenses was mainly due to the increase in bank deposit interest and bond payable index withdrawn by the company in the current period, and interest expenses in the current period increased by zero.

24 ppm, +232 a year.

88%, excluding two factors, the company’s net profit attributable to the mother will increase by +26.


The channel expansion strategy combined with the 19Q2 sales expense ratio increased at least slightly, but the overall situation of 19H1 is still in a controllable state and has not significantly affected the performance.

Low gross profit business volume reduced gross profit margin; decline in gross profit margin + increase in financial expense ratio lowered net profit margin: The report led to the company’s gross profit margin.

18% a year -1.

63 single, mainly due to the volume of low-end noodle products with low gross profit; Net profit margin: Although the efficiency of sales / R & D expenses has improved significantly (the sales / R & D expense ratios have become 0 respectively.


41 units, of which the decrease in sales expense ratio was mainly due to the report that the merged company vigorously developed the low-end noodle noodle business, and the corresponding expenses of low-end noodle noodles were replaced by mid-to-high-end products, of which market service fees / advertisement fees / sales staff salary revenue accounted forThan -0 respectively.



53 single), but affected by the decline in gross profit margin and financial expense ratio (financial expense ratio +1).

44 units), 19H1 company net profit was 6.

87% every year -2.

05 averages.

Product category expansion + cost reduction, two-wheel drive company’s performance improvement logic clear product side: the company consolidates its advantages in noodle noodle business while continuously expanding new categories to form a product structure mainly noodle noodles, supplemented by instant noodles and wet noodles.

In the noodle business, the company has a two-pronged approach: gradually continue to guide product upgrades to consolidate the leading position of the commercial supermarket channel, gradually introduce new cost-effective products to promote channel sinking, and further increase the city’s market share; the expansion of new products has two main directions: one is through the acquisition of COFCOWugu Dojo has increased its non-fried instant noodle business. There is obvious synergy between the company and the company at the production base and channel end; gradually increasing the production capacity to focus on the high-margin wet noodle business to achieve a double harvest of revenue and profit; the cost side: the company through continuous improvement of productionTechnology and promotion of production automation to improve production efficiency. By supporting the construction of flour processing plants in the production base and arranging the upstream of the industrial chain to promote the reduction of raw material costs, the increase in production efficiency and the reduction of raw material costs have helped the company’s costs continue to decline.

In summary, the expansion of categories promotes the company’s revenue and profit double harvest, reducing costs to further improve the profitability, Shuangquan attack the company’s performance improvement logic is clear.Third, investment advice Based on the increase in the bond payable index caused by the issuance of bonds, the company’s profitability has been dragged down to a certain extent. We slightly lower our profit forecast.

The company is expected to achieve operating income of 34 in 19-21.



9.2 billion, previously + 20% / 18% / 16%; realized net profit attributable to mother 2.



10 trillion, ten years +12.

4% / 21.

8% / 21.

8%, corresponding EPS is 0.



93 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 20/16/14 times.

At present, the overall food industry is estimated to be 31 times. The company expects to exceed the industry estimate, and the future growth stability is high.

In summary, maintain the “recommended” level.

4. Risk warnings: the market acceptance of rice noodle products has declined, financial costs have run out of control, and food safety issues have been raised.

Dongzhu Ecology (603359) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Orders Continue to Huge, Employee Stocks Stimulate Motivation

Dongzhu Ecology (603359) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Orders Continue to Huge, Employee Stocks Stimulate Motivation

This report reads: The company is a strong leader in domestic ecological wetland restoration, and actively promotes the nationwide layout, optimizes the business structure and integrates industry chain resources; employee shareholding will stimulate motivation; liquidity improvement policies support favorable protection of growth.

  Investment Highlights: Be cautious in increasing your holdings.

The company’s 2018 revenue is about 15.

900 million (+30%) / Net profit is about 3.

3% (+ 34%) is lower than expected or related to factors such as the credit crunch in 2018; we lower our forecast for 2019/20 to 1.


85 yuan (originally 1.


(97 yuan) with a growth rate of 40/29%, and the EPS is forecast to be 2 in 2021.

The growth rate of 33 yuan is 26%; considering the recent risk increase / building assessment and repair, and referring to comparable companies in the industry, the company is given 15 times PE in 2019, and the target price is raised to 21.

6 yuan, cautious increase.

  The growth rate of Q4 net profit improved, and operating cash flow was slightly under pressure.

1) Q1-Q4 net profit is 0.




The 85 ppm growth rate is 65/87 / -17 / 24%. The growth rate of Q4 is earlier than Q3 or it is related to the improvement of liquidity and other factors; 2) Gross profit margin 28.

2% (-0.

2 pct) is relatively stable, of which the greening of municipal roads is slightly reduced (27.

2% /-1.

6pct), net interest rate is 20.

4% (+0.

6pct) or because of the decrease in the expense ratio; 3) The expense ratio during the period 5.

3% (-0.

8pct), of which the management expense rate is 5.

6% (-0.

6pct) Due to the increase in the number of employees / wage growth / market development business expenses; 4) Operating net cash flow-70.041 million yuan (15.53 million yuan in the same period last year) due to the increase in payment for engineering purchases and deposits, but better than the first three quarters;5) Accounts receivable is more than total assets 13.

2% (-9pct).

  The nationwide layout is perfect, the business structure is optimized, and employee stock ownership motivates.

1) Continue to promote the national layout, establish more than ten branches in the Yangtze River Delta / Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao / Bohai Rim and other regions and actively expand Central China / South China / Southwest; 2) Optimize the business structure, focus on the main business of ecological wetland restoration + in-depth layout of desert parksAnd State Reserve Forestry, and actively lay out industrial chain resource integration such as ecological cultural tourism; 3) New bids in 201830.

3 trillion / new sign 25.

8 trillion are better than 2017, and the new bid in 2019Q1 was 32.

600 million (+305%) / new signing 7.

500 billion US dollars (+ 131%) speeded up, and a 杭州桑拿 total of 52 new bids were awarded year-to-date.

200 million (excluding the consortium); 4) The first phase of employee stock purchases: 16.

16 yuan / 221.

60,000 shares / 3,582 million USD / lock-in for 1 year, will stimulate motivation and show significant development confidence; 5) clear PPP compliance boundary + policy support for private enterprises + liquidity marginal improvement + the company’s balance sheet has the potential for expansion, which is good for guaranteeing performanceGrowth potential.

  Catalysts: Continued loose liquidity, accelerated order advancement, ecological wetlands gaining policy support, and other core risks: Ecological wetland progress is less than expected, PPP business model risks, liquidity tightening, etc.

Hongqi Chain (002697) 2019 Third Quarter Report Preview Commentary-Performance Exceeds Expected Sustainable Growth

Hongqi Chain (002697) 2019 Third Quarter Report Preview Commentary-Performance Exceeds Expected Sustainable Growth
The company’s main business is located in the harvest period after high-speed expansion. Digital empowerment optimizes categories, accurate marketing, and strengthens internal control management to promote profitability. Xinwang Bank is in a rapid growth period. The main business and investment income drive the companySustainable performance 北京桑拿洗浴保健 growth. Performance exceeded expectations.The company released a three-quarter report preview, which is expected to achieve net profit attributable to Q1 to Q3 of 20193.8 billion?4.1 ‰, one year ago + 50%?+ 60%; of which the company achieved net profit attributable to the third quarter of 20191.6 billion?1.700 million yuan per year + 60%?+ 70%. In the main business, Xinnet Bank’s profit exceeded expectations.We estimate that XinQian Bank, which holds 15% of the company’s shares in Q1-Q3 2019, will realize net profit8.0 billion?8.70,000 yuan, contributing investment income1.2000000000?1.3 yuan; of which 2019Q1 / Q2 / Q3 Xinnet Bank contributed investment income of 26.65 million / 45.35 million / 50 million respectively?60 million yuan (55.29 million yuan in 2018A).Excluding the investment income contributed by Xinwang Bank, the net profit of the company’s main business in Q1 to Q3 2019 is estimated to be about 2.80,000 yuan, about + 27% at the beginning of the year; of which the main business attributable net profit in the third quarter of 2019 was about 1.10,000 yuan, about + 29% a year (+15 for Q1 / Q2 in 2019.2% / + 30.4%). The same store speeded up, and the number of stores increased. The total number of stores has exceeded 3,000.2019Q1-Q3, the same-store growth rate is estimated to be 3%?4%.According to the company’s official website data, as of 2019/10/13, the company has opened a total of 3,028 stores, and it is estimated that the Q3 company will increase its net increase of about 70 stores and increase the number of exhibition stores (2018A / 2019H1 exhibition stores 146/168).The company has accelerated the development of stores in large Chengdu and inland-level cities in the province. It is estimated that it will initially display about 300 stores. It is expected that multiple factors will continue to promote the improvement of gross profit margin and lead the industry.1) The level of informatization continues to improve, and data guides the optimization of SKUs, reducing low-moving sales and low gross profit products; 2) Thousands of stores, improving store positioning, product structure, value-added services, etc., and matching with surrounding customers; 3) Relying on scaleBenefits, optimizing the supply chain, global direct mining, brand direct mining, and the increase in the proportion of direct source mining products; 4) Continuous expansion of value-added business. Empower technology to enhance freshness.In 2019H1, the company has completed more than 20 supplementary system development work. The Red Flag Cloud Big Data platform helps to accurately select sites, select products, and improve marketing to improve efficiency.The company continues to promote in-depth cooperation with Yonghui Fresh, and plans to increase its stores after the renovation by 20%?30%, it is estimated that there will be 300 fresh food stores in 2019; the company acquired 9010 supermarket to replace the short board for meals. Risk factors: Expansion of new stores, fresh food business progress is less than expected; industry competition intensifies. Investment suggestion: Taking into account the company’s main business, Xinwang Bank has entered the harvest period and raised the 杭州桑拿网 company’s operating income forecast for 2019-2021 to 76.8 billion / 80.8 billion / 85.500 million (was 75).700 million / 79.600 million / 84.200 million), raised the attributable net profit forecast to 5.200 million / 6.8 billion / 8.700 million (was 4).5 billion / 5.700 million / 7.1 ‰), corresponding to EPS 0.38/0.50/0.64 yuan (was 0.33/0.42/0.52 yuan), maintain “Buy” rating.